Random facts, hard knowledge

• Statistics show that people who read this blog are 27% more likely to be intelligent, attractive, or both, than people who buy coffee from Starbucks.
• Your boss is going to catch you goofing off on the computer in twelve minutes.
• My gardener has been mowing my lawn on Fridays, even though I told him to do it on Thursdays. Yes, he's Mexican. I prefer to hire Mexicans.
• If you drink coffee from Starbucks while reading this blog, you could be a future president if only it weren't rigged.
• Ducks don't have opposable thumbs. Think about that next time you see Donald Duck eating a sandwich.
• The best music ever was back in 1969. Most of what has come since has been worthwhile only as a harmonic echo of the space time continuum, modulated by a time machine with a bad orthanium crystal.
• The three coolest years on record in Midland, TX, started when I moved there, and ended when I left. The 100℉ weather in May has resumed. Now do you miss me, hmmm?
• Mt. Vesuvius is overdue for a major eruption. Book your vacation now.
• The first inter-racial kiss on American television was on Star Trek. Nobody cared.
• Sometimes I take pretty good pictures. This is my grandson.
• 

Zen and the art of Global Warming

Global warming came across my desk again today.

I'm the editor of the CRF Newsletter, the official publication of the Cave Research Foundation. I got an email proposing an article about White Nose Syndrome, a mysterious disease which is killing bats in the northeastern United States. Now if your response to that is "who cares about a bunch of nasty bats?" you should reconsider, because bats have a direct effect on your lifestyle, beyond the obvious one involving mosquitoes and other insects. Do you like tequila? Without bats, the agave isn't pollinated, and you can say goodbye to that delicious beverage. But I digress.

WNS (White Nose Syndrome) is a serious, and mysterious disease which is killing bats while they hibernate. We haven't figured out what it is, other than a fungus, and it's threatening several species of bats.

The gentleman proposing the article suggests that perhaps the bats are going into hibernation without sufficient fat stored in their bodies, that they are malnourished, and that this is lowering their immune systems, their natural resistance to diseases. I hadn't thought of that, and it makes sense.

But he goes further, proposing that the lack of insects might be an effect of global warming. Now, it could be. It could, in my opinion, also be the result of a new disease or insectivore invading the area. I know that here in Texas, the disappearance of the Texas Horned Lizard (aka the "horny toad") is the result of the fire ant invasion from South America. No, the fire ant doesn't attack the lizard, but it does drive out the Texas Harvester Ant (aka the "red aint"). See, there are lots of villains in the environmental disaster we're living in these days.

I encouraged him to work on that article, for the obvious reason that it would be a Good Thing™ to know what is causing this bat disease, whether it's global warming or some new moth-eating critter from Australia or the tragic result of a chemical experiment gone wrong. Remember that DDT reduced the bat population in New Mexico to a horrifying degree. And if it is a global warming thing, it would be useful to know that, too.

But it got me to thinking once again about the global warming dilemma. Now, most of you don't know what a dilemma actually is - you assume it's a synonym for "difficult problem." A dilemma is a set of choices, either of which may give costly and unsatisfactory results, but one of which must be taken. Here's the global warming dilemma.

We are faced with two possibilities: either global warming is a real crisis, is threatening our very existence as we know it, and is caused by man's industrial activity and lifestyle....
or it isn't.

If the first is true, then we have to do something. We have to cut back on energy consumption. We have to limit our lifestyles. (And for some reason lots of money has to change hands, but that hasn't been explained to my satisfaction).

If the second is true - if global warming is a crock, or if it's totally natural - then the unnecessary attempt to stop nature in its tracks could be very very expensive, could result in the failure of the world wide economy and the loss of a great deal of liberty, and could even be environmentally destructive in the long run.

But we don't really know which is true. The water in this pond has been thoroughly muddied by political hacks on both sides. Environmentalism has lost considerable credibility as the result of well-intended exaggeration over the years, and as the result of self-fulfilling computer model prophecy, and recently as the result of demands to silence open debate on the subject (Weather Channel, anyone?) What are we supposed to do? Who should we believe?

My own skepticism springs from my long years in the public school system. Way back in the 60's, we were told by those in the environmental movement that if we didn't do something soon, the entire rain forests in South America would be GONE in ten years. Yes, folks, the lungs of the earth would be no more. I was very concerned, as I have grown quite fond of the air I breathe.

Ten years later, when the forests were scheduled to be gone, the same people were telling us that the destruction of the rain forests was not only unabated, it had grown in speed, and we had to do something. Since this didn't square with what I had been told before - the forests are still there, after all - I became suspicious and so I wondered exactly what was in the Kyoto protocol that had to be signed by every nation on earth. I wondered why the United States had to sign an agreement to save a rain forest that wasn't even in our territory. Why could the governments of suramerica not make the changes necessary without our permission? A little research explained that what was necessary was for the USA to send lots of money to these countries' governments. But wasn't that the original reason for the destruction of those forests? Hadn't we sent them foreign aid so they could "develop" those forests into farmland? Something wasn't quite right. Yet I understood then and I understand now that those forests are fragile and must be protected. I have seen them. I have seen how thin the soil is. I have seen that once the trees are knocked down, it will not be easy to replant them. I just can't trust governments in the world to fix the problem, or to tell me the truth about them.

Over the years, I have learned an even more deeply ingrained distrust of government. Now, understand that I have no animosity toward the people who run the National Park Service, or the various agencies responsible for taking care of our wildlife and waterways. I think they are doing the best they can with the paltry sums they have to work with. And I do believe that the people warning us about climate change believe what they say and are sincere. They may even be right. But I do not trust the politicians who promise to take care of the environment or do something about global warming, whether or not it is a fact or a scare tactic. They talk and they ask for votes and contributions... but they do nothing. They don't even fund the park service as they should. Their motivation is to hold onto power, not save the earth.

And here's where I have the solution to our dilemma. You see, we can't know if global warming is a fact or not. There are just too many variables to know for sure, and there is too much political poison being poured into the discussion to come to a reliable conclusion. There are too many writers saying that this or that "proves" something, when it merely suggests it, or at best "demonstrates" it. Hyperbole is no friend of the truth. Yet, real proof is hard to come by when you're talking about a world wide phenomenon. So what can we do without that proof? Which course do we take?

Go to this website for a list of things that you can do, and why. Sure, the website comes from the absolute conviction that global warming is a real threat, but so what? These are all things that you can do just in case, that will actually have benefits to you that are real regardless of whether global warming is real.

I've already done all of them except for donating money or supporting politicians. Ain't no way I'll campaign for somebody just because he says the right words. But I drive a Prius hybrid, I plan to buy a second one to replace my beloved pickup, I still have one of two compost bins (gave one away), I have an organic garden, I've spent hundreds of hours on cave restoration, my house is well-insulated, I do the laundry in cold water when practical, and I have replaced those incandescent bulbs with the CF kind throughout this house and the last one I owned. I signed up for an electric plan that delivers only 100% renewable energy (from those lovely wind farms, you see). I plan my trips carefully to avoid unnecessary miles.

These are all things you can do that will benefit you even if global warming is just a crock after all. If I, a skeptic, can do them, why not you?

Why not hedge our bets if we can, eh?

Day of Remembrance

It's Memorial Day. The first Memorial Day since my dad, a WW2 veteran, passed away and was buried with military honors.

Here in Sienna Plantation, the Boy Scouts have a program where you can donate $50 a year and they'll come out the night before each patriotic holiday and set a flag in your yard. Not just a tiny little flag with a popsicle stick for a mast - a real flag. So I went for it.

I was hoping for a field of flags on my block, but there are only three there this morning on my end of the street. The street does some sharp turns, and is in fact a circle of sorts, so there may be more flags on the street than are visible here, but so far I see only three.

I'm hoping that when people see how great they look, they'll opt in too. Maybe on the fourth we can see many more.

Houston, we have a - what was that, anyway?

I suppose there are an infinite number of ways to compare cities. One common way is by crime statistics. Houston has an exceptionally high crime rate, higher even than Wichita Falls. Midland has a relatively low rate, and Missouri City (where my mail is processed) has an even lower one.

Another, more useful comparison would be the percentage of TFM's encountered on the streets and highways. Oh, you aren't familiar with that acronym? Let's bring you up to speed. A TFM is a Total Freaking Moron, but you can adjust the acronym as you please. It could also stand for Terribly Foolish Moron, but the point is that these drivers are morons, and not just normal standard-issue morons.

A standard-issue moron is a person who tailgates, speeds, and generally takes risks that don't need to be taken. He drives aggressively, he uses a cell phone without bothering to compensate for the distraction, he believes that he is a good driver when he isn't a good driver by any stretch of the imagination. These people are everywhere, and the percentage from city to city doesn't really vary enough to be statistically relevant. You see them all the time, on virtually every drive home from work. They irritate you, they make you a little more defensive as you continue your drive.

But a TFM is an amazing creature to behold. One sees them in action and one either utters an expletive involuntarily, or one prays for divine protection and truly means it. While the normal moron will change lanes suddenly and without warning, nearly taking your bumper with him, the TFM will do it in an 18-wheeler. While the normal moron will make a left turn from the right lane, forcing you to slam on your brakes, the TFM will make the same turn across four lanes of busy traffic, causing a multi-car pile up. While a normal moron will weave in and out of busy lanes of thick traffic to gain perhaps an extra car length or two, the TFM will do it at 90 mph, and his weaving will involve six lanes of traffic at once, just before darting to make his exit on the opposite side of the freeway. That's a TFM.

He is incapable, I suppose, of assessing risk - the odds of a given action resulting in unwanted consequences as opposed to the goal or reward, the degree of that unwanted consequence, and the size or quality of the reward - all at the same time. He only gets as far as "if I can get from point A to point B faster, I won't have to wait as long." He rarely considers "if I kill myself on the way, I won't even get to point B." He never considers "the minor goal of getting to point B two minutes sooner isn't remotely worth the high risk of severe pain or death involved."

I estimate the TFM percentage in Wichita Falls to be about 4%, based on living in Wichita county most of my life. For Midland, maybe 2% at the most. Sugar Land or Missouri City would be about 6%, with the worst coming out at rush hour and going dormant the rest of the time. But Houston.... I would put the score at no less than 10%. If you aren't used to Houston traffic, you cannot possibly drive more than thirty minutes without your jaw dropping to your lap in amazement at least once. You cannot remain indifferent when you have seen a motorcycle on the service road, his crying, tormented little engine audible from high on the expressway, racing at 100 mph, down there precisely because there are fewer cars in the way, which means that he won't have to weave through them quite so much. Is he wearing a helmet? I'll let you guess.

Even on a short drive, you will typically see about three cars each minute blow by you at 30 mph over the prevailing speed (never mind the speed limit). You get used to it pretty quickly, and you figure out that to deal with it, you simply stay in your lane and ignore them. You assume that if you don't do anything unexpected, they will likely miss you, much as the bats do if you get caught in a cave at sundown when they awaken. And, on the bright side, TFM's don't pee on you as they pass. Well, they haven't so far, at least.

Now, the one good thing about having such a high TFM score is that the other 90% learn to be very good drivers - careful and logical. They learn the importance of driving close to the prevailing speed, regardless of the posted limit. If the limit is 60, but the traffic is moving steadily at 50, we all go 50. If it's going 65, we all go 65, because driving at a speed that's too different, whether slower or faster, is more dangerous than merely speeding is by itself. People try to keep a distance between them and the car ahead if possible (not the distance recommended back in driver's ed - that's not possible in Houston), and though there is a tendency to push the amber lights and thus run the reds, they generally don't floor the accelerator to do this when the car in front has applied his brakes to stop at the light. The TFM's, of course, do this all the time, and then slam on the brakes, coming to rest sideways just inches behind the next car - if all goes well, that is. (Oh, yes, they do. When I see this about to happen, I move to the rightmost edge of my lane to increase the chances of being missed by the tire-screaming missile to my left).

A friend of mine who used to live here said to me the other day, "Do you know what most parents in Houston give their kids for their first car?" The answer: a Piñata.

Whim voting

This last Saturday, GA and I went to the Sienna Club or whatever it's called to get our ID cards, which will allow us entry to the Swimming Pool / Water park / fitness center thing. It so happened that it was also election day for the local school board, which is pretty much for all of Fort Bend County. There were two people standing just outside the limit for electioneering, which was easy to do because it wasn't a school. They introduced themselves, and thanked us for voting.

We got our cards, and decided what the heck, why not go ahead and vote for these guys?

So we did, and while we were at it we voted against the bond issue. We always vote against bond issues unless we have a good reason to vote for it, which has never happened yet. And as always, the bond issue passed in spite of our NO vote.

But we were pleased to find that the two people we supported for the school board were both challengers! And at last check, one of them was winning and the other was in a close race, such that they were going to have to keep counting or something.

And we got our ID badges, and of course GA's has a misspelling, but I don't think that will keep us out of the pool.