Whoa

OK, that was weird.

We were watching this movie, The Bucket List, and the credits had just rolled at the end.

The lights went out at 8:37 pm, and then came back on two seconds later, and then our front door blew open.

So if either or both of us dies in our sleep tonight, you'll have a cool story to tell at the funeral.

Life is a box of chocolates, after the coupon

I just read a short blog about what two of my grandchildren did. Go read it. I'll wait here for you.

Now that's the quality I love in people everywhere - I love it when kids or grownups (but especially kids) do something different and original.

But this blog will intentionally be rambling and random. You know you love it.

This past week I went to visit my best friends in the whole world, back in my old hometown of Wichita Falls. It was a short visit, centered around seeing the play that they are both in, Move Over Mrs. Markham, which is a British farce, only they Americanized it because most of the cast wasn't able to handle the accent. I found it most enjoyable (and it is still playing to sold out audiences), and all the more so since I played Mr. Markham in that play and in that same theatre many years ago, when I still had dark hair.

While there, I met their new outside cat, named Princess, who looks and acts so much like a cat I used to have that I couldn't help but pet it and coo at it.

We watched a movie together (not with the cat, but with the family) - "21," which is about some MIT guys doing a card counting thing in Las Vegas and making tons of money. There is a scene where the professor is explaining to the class about probabilities and how change affects them. So he describes a game show where you're supposed to choose the best door out of three. A student chooses door number 1. Now the professor reminds the class that the odds are 33.3 percent that he has chosen the correct door, but - now the game show host reveals that door number 3 is not the best door, and is therefor out of the equation. Would he like to change his mind?

The student says yes, and now he goes for door number 2, because its probability is now - I forget the percentage, but it is higher than the obvious 50%. And the professor agrees, and praises him, and now wants him to go be a card counter in Vegas. And I'm all like "what???"

I was willing to agree that there are probably some mathematical principles that are way beyond me - I know that there are other dimensions besides the four that are obvious to us - but this was nonsense, or so it seemed to me, and still does.

Suppose you have the same scenario, only this time you have two students participating. One chooses door 1, the other chooses door 2. The game show host takes door 3 out of the equation, as before. Do the two students now switch doors, because each door is now greater than 50% likely to be the correct door? I would love for someone to explain to me how 1 out of 2 can possibly be anything but 50%.

But back to the family of my friends. One of their daughters is almost certain to be a semi-finalist merit scholar or whatever you call that, which doesn't really surprise me because she is so brilliant. Both daughters are, of course, incredibly smart and visually attractive in the bargain.

After the show Thursday night, the plan was to hit the backyard hot tub, so as to enjoy the near freezing temperatures and high winds that Wichita Falls was providing for us. But the female half of the partnership had to back out due to work interfering - honest - and that would have left two guys in the hot tub, and that would have been too... you know. The G word.

It was probably all for the best, since I was getting sleepy already and I had to leave early the next morning for my long drive back to Houston.

I wonder if my life would have been any different if either of my two brothers had been creative enough to want to sell me on a treadmill while playing store?

****

Update... OK, a computer geek in Midland explained it to me, though it wasn't clear in the movie. The game show host can't open your door, whether it's wrong or right. So if you have the correct door already, he has two doors to choose from. If you have the wrong door, however, he can only choose one door to open.

So your choice being wrong or right affects the door he opens, which in turn slightly affects the odds of your door being right.

to guitar or not to guitar

To guitar or not to guitar, that is the question.

If you have known me for thirty years or more, then you know that I used to play guitar back in the day. I had a fabulous Gibson SG-I, with a perfect fret board and the easiest action you could ask for while playing.

I played in a little Christian rock band very briefly, led by Bill Lee (I wonder if he's still around), and I've forgotten the name of the band. We were actually pretty good - each of us had written a song or two, and this particular one that I wrote had a "heavy" sound, and used the lyrics from a hymn out of the Baptist Hymnal.

This was in 1971 or so, and there was no such thing as a Contemporary Christian bin at the record store, and in fact, most churchy types considered rock music to be of the devil, and to be shunned at all cost. Annie Herring wasn't recording yet, and it would be another few years before we would hear Why Should the Devil Have All the Good Music, by Larry Norman. So this was a cutting edge thing to do. I'm not saying we were the first, but I am saying that we were blazing our own trail through the Christian music wilderness.

What happened was that I was singing with a church sponsored youth group at Eden Hills Baptist Church, and we quite innocently had included in our repertoire a popular selection from the musical Jesus Christ Superstar - which was admittedly not even close to being doctrinally correct, though we hadn't really considered that. We were doing popular songs modified to be sort of Christian in nature - for example, I'm a Believer, the Monkees' hit, with a few altered lyrics.

We got invited to some little Assembly of God church which was doing some Sunday afternoon festival, and they wanted us to represent what the youth of today was doing musically. We sang I Don't Know How to Love Him, and one of the southern gospel groups walked out. Walked out! To their credit, they refrained from holding up crosses and trying to cast out our demons, but it was pretty darn rude when you consider that we were invited, paid our own way there, and we were kids for crying out loud. Well, practically kids.

Actually, all but one of them walked out - Bill Lee stayed in, and he apologized for the rest of his group. And later, before their group split up (Bill Lee quit or was fired, who knows), I dropped by one of their rehearsals. There they were, the group who had indignantly walked out on us for singing unapproved music, drinking beer and telling dirty jokes and using profanity like it was the king's English. Except Bill, who spoke softly and could have been in church. My opinion of the gospel music industry was dropping like a rock.

After their group fell apart, Bill thought it would be interesting to form a new group with some of us - me on guitar or bass, and some other people we knew - playing a mix of rock and gospel. Sure, why not? So we formed that little group. A strange thing happened. We were catching on. Churches allowed us to play in their fellowship halls (not the sanctuary, that would have been blasphemy), and we got invited to many youth functions. During one of these functions, a lady asked us if we would be willing to travel to another town. She thought we were pretty good, and if we wanted her to do it, she could arrange for us to play at the high school auditorium in Bellevue, to the southeast of our hometown, Wichita Falls. She would take care of the promotion, the ticket sales, everything. Well... sure, why not?

So we packed up our amplifiers and drove to Bellevue, and set up on the small stage there. On the other side of the curtain was a packed auditorium, probably holding a couple of hundred people. One thing was odd, though - I was expecting to see high school kids, and most of these people were adults. Well, not to worry, they were probably family types.

We opened with the song I had written, because it established so well that we were playing Christian rock. I played bass on that one, because the song depended on a heavy rock line, and I had written it. Only fair.

By the time we finished the song, the auditorium was empty. Well, not empty, there were four or five kids in the front row screaming for more. They were the only ones that hadn't been accompanied by their parents. The other kids had been dragged indignantly from the place by their gospel music loving parents. The promotion had been done, yes, but the posters had all said "gospel music" - the nice lady hadn't known what else to call what it was that we did.

That made twice we had been walked out on by gospel music fans.

After that, I had the blessing and privilege to find a small church that was actually into praise and worship, without all the nonsense. A group formed, named Peniel, and I found myself playing my Gibson SG-I, and we actually played Christian music without caring at all if we ever became popular or successful - we just sang and played and worshiped and it was the best time of my life.

Many of us were Air Force, and so what with transfers and such we parted ways. Many of us are still in touch via the internet, and we are still close friends. No, not just friends, brothers.

I began to lose interest in playing the guitar, and I sold the SG-I, or rather traded it in on a new acoustic guitar that was just coming into use: the Ovation. I still have it (model 1111-4). It's a little harder to play than the SG, because the first fret is kind of hard to get all the way down, as is the case with most acoustics, so an F chord is a bear. And a chord that requires more than three frets is impossible for me - I broke a finger at Amsco steel when I was helping to change a die on the brake press, and it never healed right. So my third finger is so weak that I have to use my fourth finger to make a "down" chord, the sort of bar chorded A. That works OK until I need an A7 or the equivalent, and then I'm in trouble.

And anyway, I'm way way out of practice. I barely remember how to play now.

So up the highway from us is this place that sells guitars and gives lessons. And I'm thinking about trading in my Ovation, which has increased in value and is in near-mint condition, for a new electric guitar and small amplifier. I have heard that they make guitars in 3/4 scale, so I could reach that third fret without stretching too hard. And at least one Ovation of that model has sold for $3000... though it may have been a special edition or something. I find it hard to believe that my little $250 guitar from 1974 could be that prized. On the other hand, if you adjust for inflation... who knows?

That and... and... taking lessons. Actual lessons. I never took lessons in my life. For all I know, I learned it all wrong. And I have the time to practice now, being retired and old and useless.

What should I do?

toast

I made toast this morning and there was a longhorn image burned onto the toast.
It's a miracle.
I shall now put it on eBay and sell it for a thousand dollars.

Random discoveries

1) After watching our Woodstock DVD last night, I was reminded of the incredibly ignorant words coming from the stage microphones between sets. The stupidest was when somebody was pointing out the army helicopters which were landing nearby to deploy a medical team to care for those among the half million attending who had gotten sick, or overdosed, or injured somehow. "They're with us this time, man, they're with us!" As if the United States Army had ever been against them. Sure, some officers were likely to make snide comments about hippies in those days, but nobody in an army helicopter would have been deployed against American citizens just because of hair style or choice of music.
There were other stupid comments about how well this was all working - and it is true that it was amazing that that many people could sit together for three days without anyone attacking another or committing violent crimes. But it was also true that the only reason they had water to drink or food to eat was that emergency services were coming to their rescue, bringing food and help in response to what was, in truth, a disaster area.
I was also astounded by the utter lack of talent or skill on the part of Canned Heat. Listen to that guitar solo, and compare it to performances by Ten Years After, The Who, Jimi Hendrix or Carlos Santana. It's like comparing a little kid playing chopsticks on the piano to the guy in Legend of 1900.
Tickets were $18 in advance for all three days, which is $75 in today's money.
They told the local authorities they expected no more than 50,000 people attending the event.
There were two deaths during the festival: one was a heroin overdose, the other was a guy in a sleeping bag who got run over by a tractor.
Also, the bass player for Jefferson Airplane was one ugly dude.

2) Pringles' Onion Blossom Chips are awesome, assuming you like Onion Blossoms or their many imitators. They taste so much like the onion blossoms that you have to eat a couple, maybe three, before you can get past the shock.

3) Many people who you think are for Obama are not. Many who still are, are going to be very very disappointed in the next four years. He isn't going to be as good as they expect, because he can't really do the things they think he promised to do. And he isn't going to be quite as bad as his detractors expect - unless he turns out to really be the anti-christ, in which case he will be worse instead. This was an election year, and hyperbole was at its usual level for such a time. But you never know.

Hammer and Sickle

That's the communist flag being waved in celebration of our president-elect, there.

Fear debt and more

None of these money principles are really new with me, and you have likely heard them before, but these are the ones that I have personally found to be very good advice, and practical for the average bear. Your mileage may vary.

1) Fear debt. It is a vicious killer, and can become your master in less time than you would believe. It's a mathematical thing.

There are only two things that you can justify buying on credit: your house or your car. You can justify buying the house on credit because everybody has to have one, you'd be paying rent if you didn't, and in truth, it's sort of a savings account / retirement plan anyway. At the end of 30 years (or 15 if you're good and can manage it), you have a house that will make it possible to retire.

You can justify the car because you really need it to be able to hold a job, which also is necessary. If you live in a place that offers mass transit, this doesn't apply. But if you live in Albuquerque, which requires a car for survival, you're going to either buy a car or walk.
Most people are math challenged, and don't realize the actual effect of paying interest, or the wonder that is compounding. If you make the entries on a spreadsheet, though, you can see it as it happens. But let's oversimplify just to make it easy. When you buy a $1,000 item on credit for a year, at 18%, you're paying 1180.00 for that item, and you're paying an extra 180 bucks for the privilege of not having to wait for it. But if you save up for it, and earn only 4% on the money while you save, you only pay $960 for it, as if it were on sale. The difference between buying now and buying later is $230! (It's actually much much more, because the interest compounds, but that takes a spreadsheet to demonstrate.)

And it gets worse. When you do it with a credit card (notice that you can't buy a car or house with a credit card), the terms encourage you to not pay off the balance. The debt grows and grows until you are only able to pay the interest. Now you're screwed, because you have to pay money to the bank, and you get nothing for it. Zilch. To get out of this mess, you have to pay back that debt with large portions of your income. And it isn't easy.

Most people learn this the hard way, and if they're lucky they get to start over with an even balance by the time they reach 40 years of age.

So the folks who save their money get a mathematical advantage over those who buy on credit, without even having to work any harder or earn more money.

Once you master the principle of staying out of debt, there are some neat things you can do with a credit card - but if you can't pay off the balance every single time, with room to spare, don't even try them. I won't list them here. I will only tell you that they involve taking advantage of the enticements that the banks offer you, hoping to get you into their lair, but you fool them by paying off the balance each month - wicked, false, trickly hobbitses!


2) Learn the difference between cheap and thrifty.

You can actually lose money by being cheap. OK, sometimes you can't help it; you have to have a car, and so you buy a junker, because it's the best you can do. But if you can afford to buy a car that is dependable, you should do it.

Here's thrifty: you can go to Kroger's and buy the store brand of many items for a third less than the famous, advertised brand. Why not do it? Now, if you get home, and it really isn't as good (sometimes the case), then go back to the famous brand. Here are some things I no longer buy with the official label anymore, because the Kroger's brand is just as good: Miracle Whip, sandwich sliced ham, sour cream, butter (whipped or otherwise), most canned goods including corn, beets, vinegar, Campbell's soups... the list goes on. Some things, though are best done by the experts, such as canned spinach, Wolf brand chili, and Dr Pepper.

Let's assume you have some money available, and you're going to buy... say, a new TV. How much do you watch TV? If you watch it every evening, and it's your main entertainment, then prorate it. The TV will likely last ten years, but at least five. That's a lot of TV watching, so you should be willing to spend a little more and get a good one in the first place. The same goes for that washer and dryer, the refrigerator, your shoes - you should plan on using them for many hours, and so you shouldn't go cheap. Obviously, you don't need to pay for status symbols - buy quality, buy what you will use. Find the best value.

Incidentally, don't be afraid to bargain, especially when buying an expensive item. When we bought our washer and dryer, we got them to knock off a couple hundred bucks on the deal. If you're embarrassed, try this technique. You go in and ask to see the very cheapest thing they have. Look at it, consider it. Ask about it. Go look at the more expensive things, too, and ask about them. Then go back and look at the cheap stuff again. The salesman and his manager will want you to buy the more expensive one, of course, so as soon as he starts explaining the advantages of the better item, ask him if he would consider sweetening the deal if you were to buy the better item. Often, he will go talk to the manager and come back with an incentive. Honest, it can happen.

3) When you buy a house, seriously consider a 15 year mortgage rather than a 30 year mortgage. Not only will you save 15 years worth of interest, the bank will usually offer a much lower rate, perhaps as much as 2 percentage points. If you can't afford the payments on a 15 year mortgage, you are likely buying too much house.

4) Marry somebody who understands this. If you are considering marriage, discuss the principles of debt and thrift. If he or she doesn't immediately and enthusiastically agree with you that debt is of the devil, slow down the romance. Otherwise, you will have to follow the path to near bankruptcy, then climb slowly and painfully out of the pit of financial darkness, all so that your new spouse will learn the hard way what I just explained in this short little blog.